← Explore · Market 2118271

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

70.5% implied · bid 70.0¢ · ask 71.0¢

The market prices this at 71.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability71.0%

Bid / ask / mid70.0¢ / 71.0¢ / 70.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.4%)

Change 24h-1.50pt

Change 7d+4.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,048

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$680 / $2,531

Imbalance10% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score46.6 / 100

RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.93

RSI (14, hourly)75.0

Realized vol 7d0.89pt

Change 1h-0.50pt

Resolves in 24d 21h.

Time to resolve24d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%