← Explore · Market 2118272

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?

0.7% implied · bid 0.4¢ · ask 1.0¢

The market prices this at 0.2%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.

Implied probability0.2%

Bid / ask / mid0.4¢ / 1.0¢ / 0.7¢

Spread0.6¢ (85.7%)

Change 24h-0.70pt

Change 7d-2.30pt

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$264

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10 / $51

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score47.0 / 100

RSI 30 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.46

RSI (14, hourly)29.6

Realized vol 7d0.25pt

Change 1h-0.90pt

Resolves in 24d 21h.

Time to resolve24d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%