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Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

45.0% implied · bid 44.0¢ · ask 46.0¢

The market prices this at 43.0%, down 4.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability43.0%

Bid / ask / mid44.0¢ / 46.0¢ / 45.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (4.4%)

Change 24h-4.50pt

Change 7d-5.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$4,252

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$362 / $756

Imbalance3% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score40.6 / 100

RSI 13 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 9.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-9.37

RSI (14, hourly)13.3

Realized vol 7d0.54pt

Change 1h-6.50pt

Resolves in 470d 21h.

Time to resolve470d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%