← Explore · Market 2127312
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
34.0% implied · bid 33.0¢ · ask 35.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 34.0%, down 8.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability34.0%
Bid / ask / mid33.0¢ / 35.0¢ / 34.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (5.9%)
Change 24h-8.00pt
Change 7d-8.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,142
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$117 / $557
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 9.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-9.87
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.62pt
Change 1h-8.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 470d 21h.
Time to resolve470d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%