← Explore · Market 2133716
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
17.5% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 19.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (17.1%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d+0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$422
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$76 / $112
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.72
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.71pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 92d 21h.
Time to resolve92d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%