← Explore · Market 2133718

Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?

68.0% implied · bid 66.0¢ · ask 70.0¢

The market prices this at 70.0%, up 18.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability70.0%

Bid / ask / mid66.0¢ / 70.0¢ / 68.0¢

Spread4.0¢ (5.9%)

Change 24h+18.50pt

Change 7d+17.50pt

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$12,272

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$98 / $392

Imbalance7% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score30.2 / 100

RSI 97 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean5.36

RSI (14, hourly)97.4

Realized vol 7d1.25pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 92d 21h.

Time to resolve92d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%