← Explore · Market 2159718
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
82.0% implied · bid 81.0¢ · ask 83.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 84.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability84.0%
Bid / ask / mid81.0¢ / 83.0¢ / 82.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+15.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 81% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,078
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,743 / $3,979
Imbalance81% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.16
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.49pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 82d 9h.
Time to resolve82d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%