← Explore · Market 2241741
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
18.5% implied · bid 18.0¢ · ask 19.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.4%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$927
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,447 / $1,295
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.21
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.18pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%