← Explore · Market 2243897
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
40.5% implied · bid 40.0¢ · ask 41.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 41.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability41.0%
Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 40.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 30% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,253
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11,987 / $9,293
Imbalance30% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score55.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.15
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.37pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%