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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

3.9% implied · bid 3.8¢ · ask 3.9¢

The market prices this at 3.9%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability3.9%

Bid / ask / mid3.8¢ / 3.9¢ / 3.9¢

Spread0.1¢ (2.6%)

Change 24h+0.10pt

Change 7d-0.05pt

Moderately liquid (score 63/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$80,703

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$20,720 / $5,446

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score62.6 / 100

RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.34

RSI (14, hourly)45.5

Realized vol 7d0.26pt

Change 1h-0.05pt

Resolves in 67d 21h.

Time to resolve67d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%