← Explore · Market 2333782
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
0.8% implied · bid 0.7¢ · ask 0.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.9%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability0.9%
Bid / ask / mid0.7¢ / 0.9¢ / 0.8¢
Spread0.2¢ (25.0%)
Change 24h-0.45pt
Change 7d-0.60pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,630
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$710 / $3,301
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score51.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 20 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.14
RSI (14, hourly)20.0
Realized vol 7d0.04pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 20d 21h.
Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%