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← Explore · Market 2343689

Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?

9.2% implied · bid 9.1¢ · ask 9.2¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 9.0%, down 1.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability9.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.1¢ / 9.2¢ / 9.2¢
Spread0.1¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h-1.30pt
Change 7d+6.85pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,492
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$182 / $111
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 47 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.68
RSI (14, hourly)46.8
Realized vol 7d0.40pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 22d 1h.

Time to resolve22d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth