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Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026?

11.3% implied · bid 10.9¢ · ask 11.6¢

The market prices this at 11.4%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.

Implied probability11.4%

Bid / ask / mid10.9¢ / 11.6¢ / 11.3¢

Spread0.7¢ (6.2%)

Change 24h+1.00pt

Change 7d+7.75pt

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$953

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$145 / $76

Imbalance4% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score46.6 / 100

RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.76

RSI (14, hourly)61.2

Realized vol 7d0.43pt

Change 1h-0.40pt

Resolves in 22d 1h.

Time to resolve22d 1h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%