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Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?

10.3% implied · bid 10.3¢ · ask 10.4¢

The market prices this at 11.0%, up 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability11.0%

Bid / ask / mid10.3¢ / 10.4¢ / 10.3¢

Spread0.1¢ (1.0%)

Change 24h+1.10pt

Change 7d+4.90pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$675

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$228 / $92

Imbalance5% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score49.7 / 100

RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.26

RSI (14, hourly)59.7

Realized vol 7d0.42pt

Change 1h+0.10pt

Resolves in 22d 1h.

Time to resolve22d 1h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%