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Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026?

10.1% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 10.2¢

The market prices this at 10.1%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability10.1%

Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 10.2¢ / 10.1¢

Spread0.2¢ (2.0%)

Change 24h+2.00pt

Change 7d+3.25pt

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$938

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$147 / $64

Imbalance9% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score49.1 / 100

RSI 72 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.67

RSI (14, hourly)71.8

Realized vol 7d0.55pt

Change 1h-0.15pt

Resolves in 22d 1h.

Time to resolve22d 1h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%