← Explore · Market 2371057
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
45.0% implied · bid 41.0¢ · ask 49.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 49.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
Implied probability49.0%
Bid / ask / mid41.0¢ / 49.0¢ / 45.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (17.8%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d+6.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$631
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$64 / $52
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.74
RSI (14, hourly)48.3
Realized vol 7d0.90pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 247d 22h.
Time to resolve247d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%