← Explore · Market 2374271
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
10.5% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 11.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 73/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$83,252
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$25,822 / $29,376
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score72.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.04
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.12pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%