← Explore · Market 2430328

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

3.1% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 3.3¢

The market prices this at 3.4%, down 1.9pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability3.4%

Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 3.3¢ / 3.1¢

Spread0.3¢ (9.5%)

Change 24h-1.85pt

Change 7d+1.55pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$36,359

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,675 / $1,255

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score50.0 / 100

RSI 38 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.36

RSI (14, hourly)37.7

Realized vol 7d0.50pt

Change 1h-0.25pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%