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← Explore · Market 2430368

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

3.6% implied · bid 2.2¢ · ask 5.1¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 7.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.9¢ spread.

Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.2¢ / 5.1¢ / 3.6¢
Spread2.9¢ (79.5%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d+0.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$314
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$48 / $97
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 19 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.00
RSI (14, hourly)18.8
Realized vol 7d0.43pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth