← Explore · Market 2430370

Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

5.3% implied · bid 3.3¢ · ask 7.3¢

The market prices this at 6.9%, up 1.1pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability6.9%

Bid / ask / mid3.3¢ / 7.3¢ / 5.3¢

Spread4.0¢ (75.5%)

Change 24h+1.15pt

Change 7d+0.40pt

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$824

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$78 / $105

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score30.1 / 100

RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.31

RSI (14, hourly)57.5

Realized vol 7d0.41pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%