← Explore · Market 2430441
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
82.5% implied · bid 81.0¢ · ask 84.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 81.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability81.0%
Bid / ask / mid81.0¢ / 84.0¢ / 82.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-5.50pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 23% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$391
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$277 / $5,556
Imbalance23% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.97
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.80pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 20d 21h.
Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%