← Explore · Market 2430442

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

4.2% implied · bid 3.5¢ · ask 4.8¢

The market prices this at 6.5%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.

Implied probability6.5%

Bid / ask / mid3.5¢ / 4.8¢ / 4.2¢

Spread1.3¢ (31.3%)

Change 24h-0.40pt

Change 7d-1.25pt

Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$290

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$171 / $15

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score43.6 / 100

RSI 59 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.94

RSI (14, hourly)58.8

Realized vol 7d0.34pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%