← Explore · Market 2430746
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?
88.0% implied · bid 87.0¢ · ask 89.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 86.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability86.0%
Bid / ask / mid87.0¢ / 89.0¢ / 88.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.3%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d+2.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 56% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$64
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$239 / $2,369
Imbalance56% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 86 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.20
RSI (14, hourly)85.7
Realized vol 7d0.34pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 20d 21h.
Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%