← Explore · Market 2430747

Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?

3.1% implied · bid 2.4¢ · ask 3.8¢

The market prices this at 4.2%, down 1.7pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.

Implied probability4.2%

Bid / ask / mid2.4¢ / 3.8¢ / 3.1¢

Spread1.4¢ (45.2%)

Change 24h-1.70pt

Change 7d-0.95pt

Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$160

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$90 / $67

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score43.1 / 100

RSI 27 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.15

RSI (14, hourly)26.7

Realized vol 7d0.31pt

Change 1h-0.20pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%