← Explore · Market 2430750

Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?

0.8% implied · bid 0.5¢ · ask 1.1¢

The market prices this at 0.4%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.

Implied probability0.4%

Bid / ask / mid0.5¢ / 1.1¢ / 0.8¢

Spread0.6¢ (75.0%)

Change 24h+0.10pt

Change 7d+0.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$36 / $13

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score47.0 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.93

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.09pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%