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← Explore · Market 2430803

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?

92.0% implied · bid 91.0¢ · ask 93.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 92.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability92.0%
Bid / ask / mid91.0¢ / 93.0¢ / 92.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+2.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 53% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$314
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,813 / $3,162
Imbalance53% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.55
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.26pt
Change 1h+0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth