← Explore · Market 2430804

Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?

4.0% implied · bid 2.4¢ · ask 5.5¢

The market prices this at 4.6%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 3.1¢ spread.

Implied probability4.6%

Bid / ask / mid2.4¢ / 5.5¢ / 4.0¢

Spread3.1¢ (78.5%)

Change 24h+0.25pt

Change 7d+0.45pt

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$213

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$71 / $39

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score34.6 / 100

RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.11

RSI (14, hourly)54.5

Realized vol 7d0.28pt

Change 1h+0.10pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%