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← Explore · Market 2430854

Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?

90.5% implied · bid 90.0¢ · ask 91.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 91.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability91.0%
Bid / ask / mid90.0¢ / 91.0¢ / 90.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d+10.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 52% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$1,374
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$794 / $1,537
Imbalance52% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.39
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d0.86pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth