← Explore · Market 2430855

Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?

2.3% implied · bid 1.3¢ · ask 3.2¢

The market prices this at 3.3%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 1.9¢ spread.

Implied probability3.3%

Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 3.2¢ / 2.3¢

Spread1.9¢ (84.4%)

Change 24h-0.30pt

Change 7d-1.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$194

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15 / $16

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.5 / 100

RSI 46 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.89

RSI (14, hourly)45.7

Realized vol 7d0.17pt

Change 1h-0.55pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%