← Explore · Market 2430864

Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?

3.0% implied · bid 1.5¢ · ask 4.5¢

The market prices this at 3.9%, up 2.1pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability3.9%

Bid / ask / mid1.5¢ / 4.5¢ / 3.0¢

Spread3.0¢ (100.0%)

Change 24h+2.10pt

Change 7d+1.75pt

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$404

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$43 / $27

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score35.0 / 100

RSI 70 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean5.59

RSI (14, hourly)70.3

Realized vol 7d0.17pt

Change 1h-0.95pt

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%