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← Explore · Market 2431052

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

5.6% implied · bid 4.3¢ · ask 6.9¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 4.2%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 2.6¢ spread.

Implied probability4.2%
Bid / ask / mid4.3¢ / 6.9¢ / 5.6¢
Spread2.6¢ (46.4%)
Change 24h-0.90pt
Change 7d+1.40pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 37/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,275
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$469 / $69
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.09
RSI (14, hourly)44.6
Realized vol 7d1.38pt
Change 1h+0.05pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth