← Explore · Market 2431417

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

4.8% implied · bid 3.5¢ · ask 6.0¢

The market prices this at 6.0%, down 1.3pt over 24h, on a 2.5¢ spread.

Implied probability6.0%

Bid / ask / mid3.5¢ / 6.0¢ / 4.8¢

Spread2.5¢ (52.6%)

Change 24h-1.35pt

Change 7d+0.30pt

Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,777

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,571 / $130

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score38.9 / 100

RSI 13 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.16

RSI (14, hourly)13.4

Realized vol 7d0.26pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%