← Explore · Market 2431417
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
12.0% implied · bid 11.2¢ · ask 12.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.8%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.
Implied probability12.8%
Bid / ask / mid11.2¢ / 12.8¢ / 12.0¢
Spread1.6¢ (13.3%)
Change 24h+0.35pt
Change 7d+0.65pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,136
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$211 / $413
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.17
RSI (14, hourly)70.8
Realized vol 7d0.62pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 127d 22h.
Time to resolve127d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%