← Explore · Market 2487276
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?
43.0% implied · bid 38.0¢ · ask 48.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 36.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 10.0¢ spread.
Implied probability36.0%
Bid / ask / mid38.0¢ / 48.0¢ / 43.0¢
Spread10.0¢ (23.3%)
Change 24h-5.50pt
Change 7d-8.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$373
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14 / $33
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 78 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.30
RSI (14, hourly)77.8
Realized vol 7d1.94pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%