← Explore · Market 2507607

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

1.7% implied · bid 1.6¢ · ask 1.8¢

The market prices this at 1.8%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability1.8%

Bid / ask / mid1.6¢ / 1.8¢ / 1.7¢

Spread0.2¢ (11.8%)

Change 24h-0.95pt

Change 7d+0.40pt

Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$44,368

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,292 / $5,925

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)5

Liquidity score53.1 / 100

RSI 26 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.78

RSI (14, hourly)26.3

Realized vol 7d0.17pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 0d 0h.

Time to resolve0d 0h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%