← Explore · Market 2507618

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

0.5% implied · bid 0.4¢ · ask 0.6¢

The market prices this at 0.5%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability0.5%

Bid / ask / mid0.4¢ / 0.6¢ / 0.5¢

Spread0.2¢ (40.0%)

Change 24h-0.15pt

Change 7d-0.35pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$50,357

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$859 / $1,415

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score50.1 / 100

RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.69

RSI (14, hourly)33.3

Realized vol 7d0.03pt

Change 1h-0.05pt

Resolves in 7d 2h.

Time to resolve7d 2h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%