← Explore · Market 2507618
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
3.3% implied · bid 2.8¢ · ask 3.7¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.2%, down 2.3pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability3.2%
Bid / ask / mid2.8¢ / 3.7¢ / 3.3¢
Spread0.9¢ (27.7%)
Change 24h-2.30pt
Change 7d+0.60pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$70,408
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,021 / $4,703
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score49.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.28
RSI (14, hourly)16.9
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h-0.65pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%