← Explore · Market 2554361
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-8.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$81,342
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,698 / $980
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)7
Liquidity score46.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.06
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.91pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 20d 21h.
Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%