← Explore · Market 2587797
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
47.5% implied · bid 45.0¢ · ask 50.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 49.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability49.0%
Bid / ask / mid45.0¢ / 50.0¢ / 47.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (10.5%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+27.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$585
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$62 / $390
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 64 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.59
RSI (14, hourly)64.3
Realized vol 7d1.82pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 62d 9h.
Time to resolve62d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%