← Explore · Market 2591183
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
11.0% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 12.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-2.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,854
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,255 / $217
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.88
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.55pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 37d 2h.
Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%