a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 2591183

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

11.0% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 12.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 10.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-2.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$11,854
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,255 / $217
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.7 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.88
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.55pt
Change 1h+0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 37d 2h.

Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth