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← Explore · Market 2591184

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

51.0% implied · bid 50.0¢ · ask 52.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 51.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 52.0¢ / 51.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.9%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+6.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,431
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$749 / $495
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.69
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth