← Explore · Market 2591184
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
51.0% implied · bid 50.0¢ · ask 52.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 51.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 52.0¢ / 51.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.9%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+6.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,431
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$749 / $495
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.69
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 129d 3h.
Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%