← Explore · Market 2602052
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
9.5% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 10.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability9.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d-3.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,287
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,992 / $3,463
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score48.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.91
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d0.60pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 51d 21h.
Time to resolve51d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%