← Explore · Market 2602277
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
1.2% implied · bid 0.6¢ · ask 1.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.5%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability0.5%
Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 1.8¢ / 1.2¢
Spread1.2¢ (100.0%)
Change 24h+0.45pt
Change 7d+0.35pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,954
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$120 / $303
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.85
RSI (14, hourly)71.4
Realized vol 7d0.10pt
Change 1h+0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 22h.
Time to resolve6d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%