← Explore · Market 2602501

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?

0.7% implied · bid 0.6¢ · ask 0.8¢

The market prices this at 0.7%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability0.7%

Bid / ask / mid0.6¢ / 0.8¢ / 0.7¢

Spread0.2¢ (28.6%)

Change 24h-0.30pt

Change 7d-0.55pt

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,961

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$18 / $178

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score49.1 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.58

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.10pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 6d 22h.

Time to resolve6d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%