← Explore · Market 2602501

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?

2.4% implied · bid 2.1¢ · ask 2.7¢

The market prices this at 2.9%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.

Implied probability2.9%

Bid / ask / mid2.1¢ / 2.7¢ / 2.4¢

Spread0.6¢ (25.0%)

Change 24h-1.55pt

Change 7d-4.10pt

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,030

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$189 / $130

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score47.2 / 100

RSI 8 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.58

RSI (14, hourly)8.3

Realized vol 7d0.24pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 52d 21h.

Time to resolve52d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%