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← Explore · Market 2602764

Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

4.5% implied · bid 1.9¢ · ask 7.1¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 3.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 5.2¢ spread.

Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.9¢ / 7.1¢ / 4.5¢
Spread5.2¢ (115.6%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d-0.80pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 24/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15 / $81
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score24.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 85 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.35
RSI (14, hourly)85.2
Realized vol 7d0.87pt
Change 1h-0.20pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 85d 21h.

Time to resolve85d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth