← Explore · Market 2608935
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
36.5% implied · bid 36.0¢ · ask 37.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 37.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability37.0%
Bid / ask / mid36.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 36.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d+7.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,842
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,810 / $604
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 36 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.67
RSI (14, hourly)36.4
Realized vol 7d1.72pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 9h.
Time to resolve21d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%