← Explore · Market 2633429
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
9.5% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 10.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-10.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 82/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$18,627
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$43,198 / $31,750
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score82.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.03
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.47pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 39d 21h.
Time to resolve39d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%