a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 2633429

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

9.5% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 10.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-10.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 82/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$18,627
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$43,198 / $31,750
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score82.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.03
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.47pt
Change 1h+1.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 39d 21h.

Time to resolve39d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth