← Explore · Market 2639520
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
40.0% implied · bid 39.0¢ · ask 41.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 40.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability40.0%
Bid / ask / mid39.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 40.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (5.0%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-6.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13,433
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,480 / $2,308
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score42.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 46 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.48
RSI (14, hourly)45.7
Realized vol 7d1.85pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 1h.
Time to resolve174d 1h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%