← Explore · Market 2641010

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

3.1% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 3.3¢

The market prices this at 3.1%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability3.1%

Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 3.3¢ / 3.1¢

Spread0.3¢ (9.5%)

Change 24h+0.50pt

Change 7d-2.35pt

Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,269

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,389 / $7,654

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score53.5 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.60

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.13pt

Change 1h+0.05pt

Resolves in 51d 21h.

Time to resolve51d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%