← Explore · Market 2641011
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$39,217
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,448 / $1,543
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.70
RSI (14, hourly)75.0
Realized vol 7d0.35pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 81d 21h.
Time to resolve81d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%