← Explore · Market 2641019

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

11.5% implied · bid 11.0¢ · ask 12.0¢

The market prices this at 12.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability12.0%

Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)

Change 24h-2.00pt

Change 7d-10.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$9,069

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,351 / $1,661

Imbalance3% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score46.5 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.24

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.31pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%