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← Explore · Market 2641102

Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?

94.6% implied · bid 92.4¢ · ask 96.8¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 96.8%, up 27.6pt over 24h, on a 4.4¢ spread.

Implied probability96.8%
Bid / ask / mid92.4¢ / 96.8¢ / 94.6¢
Spread4.4¢ (4.7%)
Change 24h+27.60pt
Change 7d+4.10pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 57% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$15,381
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,778 / $14,035
Imbalance57% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score35.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 83 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.98
RSI (14, hourly)82.9
Realized vol 7d4.15pt
Change 1h-1.55pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 20d 21h.

Time to resolve20d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth